Thursday, October 20, 2011

roll on 2014

There we go then: some big disappointments, e.g. the excellent Mark Forskitt ending up amongst the back-markers and Sir Phil topping the poll, but generally completely unsurprising stuff, e.g. the excellent Mark Forskitt ending up amongst the back-markers and Sir Phil topping the poll.

The only real shock results for me were the losses of Deputies Bob Hill and Debbie de Sousa. Both principled and hard-working politicians who pulled their weight. Their successors have a lot to live up to and owe it to the whole island to prove that they were worth displacing the other two for.

Lyndon Farnham didn't seem as good a politician as he is a businessman last time around, but I would rather have him than Cohen.

With the Cameron government due to remain in power on the mainland for some years to come, we can probably get by a little longer with the current regime. By 2014, we may, of course, have seen a major reorganisation of the States, one way or another, and if we get that wrong, then the status quo could become even more deeply entrenched. However, I shall just have to hope that a lot more of the people who just grumble that politicians are all the same bother to come and help us elect some better ones next time.


  1. The island has been shifted to the Right. Expect to see the next three years as a period of Reaction. Reform in the sense of Carswell and Clothier Reports will be dumped in the dustbin of History and the clock turned back.

    The Electoral Commission headed by Sir Philip and a few chosen friends will reinforce the status quo with a view to getting rid of the remaining Rebels and Lefties.

    We wait to see what happens as the economy deteriorates and unemployment rises dramatically when Fulfillment is closed down. Then there will be an opportunity to organise the discontent.

  2. Shifted to the right? I used to be a newsagent, and the pattern of morning paper sales showed Jersey to be a long way right of the mainland, eg shifting more Mails than all of the other UK papers put together. What has happened is that the Mail readers have stood up to be counted, as have the Guardian and Indy readers, and all the rest have not. Bailhache might not be hailed as leader by all that many of the other right-wingers, anyway. There are existing loyalties to the likes of Phil Ozouf that he may not find easy to overcome.

  3. According to Mark Forskitt, Sir Bailhache said on one hustings that the electoral commission was a waste of money. Be prepared for that too to be swept away.

    Best get practicing your forelock tugging.

  4. With the Cameron government due to remain in power on the mainland for some years to come, we can probably get by a little longer with the current regime.

    With the Fox/Werritty/Atlantic Bridge revelations, a significant groundswell of anger about the NHS and effective popular lobbying, and renewed divisions over Europe - I would say that all bets about the stability of the UK government are right off.

  5. Anonymous #2:

    Topping the public poll seems to have a negative correlation with topping the vote amongst the politicians themselves, so it will be a surprise, as well as another disappointment, if they all suddenly start dancing to Sir Phil's tune. A lot of members are committed to reform, even if they disagree on what, and he will draw a massive amount of the angry ad hominem rhetoric he abhors upon himself, should he try to thwart them.

  6. None of the newly elected members of the States are committed to constitutional reform in any sense. Bailhache's reduction of numbers is not Reform; it is deepening and reinforcing the status quo. There is no intention to democratize the system.

    Does no one listen to what Bailhache actually says or do they just believe what they want to hear? The agenda is to straightjacket if not eliminate dissent entirely. The elite are entrenching themselves further whilst the poor and the excluded will be expected to pay the price of the Crisis – reduced pensions and benefits, unemployment, low wages and casualised work

  7. Bailhache's problem is that he needs to get 10 turkeys to vote for Christmas to achieve the kind of reform he wants. he wants to keep Constables and he needs to keep Senators, so he can only propose reducing Deputies. Could he realy find enough of them willing to sacrifice themselves for him? Was he that well loved when he presided over the House?

  8. Bailhache isn't bothered about the voting presence of opposition politicians. He knows very well that the opposition will be outvoted, since the States is already gerrymandered, in favour of the non-urban population, who support the status quo.

    No, control of the States is not enough. What bothers him and his friends is that Jersey has a visible and vocal opposition at all, since this might frighten off some of the potential clientele, such as Russian kleptocrats or Nigerian ex-dictators, who need things to be oh so very, very discrete.

    So there will be an attempt to gag opposition politicians by using the PCC to fine them or have them suspended for 'talking out of turn.' They've done it before with Ted Vibert and Stuart Stuart, so why not again - just move the goalposts - backing up the informal intimidation with financial penalties?

    And if that doesn't work there's always the Data Protection Lady to send you one of her 'notices.'

    Of course, in the end Bailhache may overreach himself, and force the UK to act, but don't hold your breath.

  9. There are now too many ministerial candidates chasing a limited number of jobs.
    At least 4 want to be CM - so the deals are being struck as we sleep.
    If Bailhache emerges as CM the distribution of ministries is still likely to be acrimonious. The Le Gresley claims are unlikely to pass the right wing selection for anything beyond assistant minister level and the same will surely apply to the likes of long servers such as Le Herissier, Breckon and Ferguson. The lefties such as Southern and Pitman are hardly likely to be under starters orders and the futures of newly appointed ministers such as Green and Duhamel must be precarious.
    Now that Constables are seen as unsafe as ministers at the ballot box, their claim must be less realistic. But at least we should look on the bright side because there will surely be much blood left along the ministerial corridor and Ozouf can only hope for the job as overseas minister without portfolio (Cohen's old sinecure)- or "exile" by any other name.
    It will be especially interesting to see how any of the new establishment stars will be rewarded too.

    The next three years won't be very comfortable but they will be " politically entertaining."

    Tom Gruchy thinks

  10. Bailhache is NOT right wing, he IS conservative (with a small c) in the extreme. Bailhache is vehemently opposed to any change whatsoever. Bailhache is authoritarian. Bailhache is a believer in big government.

    I ask myself one question - why did his father not leave the family law firm to the elder son? Having been involved in proceedings under both Bailhaches, I would say it was because he left it to the competent lawyer.

    Who gives up what is potentially a £1 million pound a year partnership for a paltry £150,000 job as solicitor general?

    I am willing to be proven wrong, but I'm afraid trust and respect have to be earnt and Sir Pip has not earnt either from me as yet.

    I think there is a very good chance that the UK will be running the next election in Jersey to ensure it is both free and fair.

  11. Can "YOU" help us out with our E-PETITION please :)


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